Energy Prices and U.S. Inflation

President Trump's claim of record tax refunds — the Tax Foundation projects roughly a $748 average increase while IRS data through March show average refunds at $3,676 so far — is likely to be offset by an Iran‑war-driven surge and volatility in oil markets: Stanford economist Neale Mahoney projects about $740 more in annual gasoline spending (with a possible May peak near $4.36/gal), and Oxford Economics estimates roughly $70 billion in added U.S. gas bills versus about $60 billion in extra refunds. Administration measures — a 172‑million‑barrel SPR release over 120 days and a 60‑day Jones Act waiver that might shave only a few cents per gallon — are widely judged too small and too slow given IEA estimates of about a 10 million bpd drop in Gulf output and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, while retail pump prices typically lag crude moves and many households now have thinner savings and higher borrowing.