Prediction Markets and Insider Trading

The White House sent staff an email warning them not to wager on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, saying using tradeable nonpublic information about Iran-war decisions or oil markets could raise ethics and criminal-risk concerns akin to insider trading. The guidance — prompted by a spike in betting on strikes, cease-fire outcomes and oil prices — was issued as the administration dispatched a delegation to Pakistan for high-stakes Iran talks.